I used to think I was great at decision making; that I aced
each decision with flying colors. This is not to say that I suddenly believe I
make bad decisions, it is just that now I am unsure if I could be making even
better choices. After spending less than a week with Wharton on Making Decisions I have become aware that there are many
influences and factors that help or hinder our capabilities. Understanding and
reflecting upon my decision making process compared to the multistage decision
making process in the text I see that that I simply make what I consider to be
the safest choices. In comparison I could be making more efficient choices that
yield more significant, successful outcomes.
The Wharton text gives examples of complex formulas used by
researchers to solve multistage problems.
These formulas input the variables and probabilities to provide a
solution with the greatest chance of success. This approach referred to as dynamic
programming is aimed toward the idea that “a decision problem may involve a
large number of stages…one need not enumerate and take expectancies of all
possible contingent future realizations to arrive at an optimum decision
policy” (Hoch, Kunreuther, Gunther, 2001, p. 42). The text goes on to say that few
solves problems through equations, which is a relief because I was near
abandoning hope at making any improvements in my decision-making methods.
Hoch, Kunreuther & Gunther explain that we tend to use
experience to learn and improve, also known as heuristics, and that we should
consider the future in our decision making processes. However, the fact that
advice must be continuously given such as ‘an apple a day keeps the doctor
away’ suggests our heuristic solutions may not always be as good as we wish
them to be (Hoch, Kunreuther, Gunther, 2001). “Precisely measuring how good (or
bad) we are at making dynamic decisions, however, turns out to be more
difficult that one might presume” (Hoch, Kunreuther, Gunther, 2001, p. 43).
Perhaps it would be beneficial for me to adopt a more systematic
means by which to make decisions. Looking at optimal decision making I can use
these to help predict how decisions I make today will affect my future. Working
full-time and also pursuing my graduate degree full-time constantly makes me
feel like my plate is as full as it could be. I cut corners all of the time
lately when it comes to what I eat and whether I exercise. I keep promising
myself that if I can just make it through another month it will be easier or if
I get through the last half of my degree this year that I can focus on my
health again come 2016.
This sounds like a nice idea, but waiting a whole year to
make a change can have quite an impact. There would be another year’s worth of
habits to break and even unseen health consequences that I may not be able to
undo. It is important to think of future impact of today’s decisions. Sometimes
theory of good decision making is easier than practicing it; after all there
are only so many hours in a day. Excuses aside there is an internet meme that
says, “You have the same amount of hours in the day as Beyoncé”. Well played,
internet… well played. Thinking forward,
as I am going to start calling it, I know I can improve my decision-making. I
am not going to study decision-making solely, but really put it to good use and
practice it, too. There is a great trail by my house that is calling my name! Time
to get out there and get busy!
Reference: Hoch, S. J., Kunreuther, H., & Gunther, R. E.
(2001). Wharton on making decisions. New York: Wiley.
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